"Gold three" steel market price, "front low back high"
發(fā)布時(shí)間:[2018-3-4 17:2:7] 瀏覽量:5178次
What is the market price of the construction steel in March? What are the uncertain factors that affect the trend of the market? This is a hot spot of concern for the current steel trade merchants. Liang Taigeng, general manager of Shanghai Hua Lei Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., interviewed by "China Metallurgical daily", thinks that the factors affecting the market price of domestic building steel market in March will lead to the attention and concern of traders.
Liang Taigeng's follow-up study of the building materials market has shown that after new year's day, the price of building steel such as rebar and wire rod has dropped sharply, and the highest point has reached 1200 yuan per ton. To begin in mid January, due to the "winter" funds to intervene, traders and end users downstream of the first half of this year the market optimistic expectations, "winter", and this "winter" scale than in previous years, the building materials prices rebound, in 2-3 weeks, East China building materials prices rose 200 yuan / ton, North China building materials prices mostly in the 300-400 yuan / ton.
Liang Taigeng said before the Spring Festival, the festival, plus snow, cold weather, construction mostly stopped, construction steel demand is almost at a standstill, the transaction also pauses, there is no market price, so the price stabilization, in the absence of turnover situation, price fluctuations have no practical significance. Besides, traders are basically off the market and are not so concerned about the rise and fall of steel prices. Businesses are concerned about the market trend of the building materials market after the Spring Festival and in March.
Liang Taigeng from two levels of supply and demand, analysis and prediction of the building materials market in March, confirmed the "low price before the high" judgment.
From the supply level, Liang Taigeng believes that there are many factors affecting the supply of construction steel market. For example, the limited production period is still in the heating season. The implementation of the measures for limiting production in the "2+26" urban steel enterprises, especially in the North China area, has limited the production intensity of the local steel plants, which is even bigger than the other areas, so as to curb the release of capacity. The supply of building materials in North China will be lower than in previous years.
In addition, the maintenance of steel works is more and more. Many steel enterprises use the Spring Festival holiday to repair the thread and line production line. If there are two bar lines in a home steel plant, the output is expected to be stopped, and it is expected to affect the output of 5000 tons for the daily production of the screw steel. There are high line production lines of steel enterprises for 13 days overhaul, affecting about 43 thousand tons of production. A steel plant has a 15 day production shutdown for the annual production of 800 thousand tons of bar production line, which affects the output of rebar 30 thousand tons. A bar production line of a steel plant has been discontinued for 8-9 days. During the Spring Festival, it does not produce, affecting the output of rebar, which is about 1300 tons per day. The February Festival factor + maintenance, plus the February work day is less than the other months. Therefore, steel output will not increase significantly in February, but traders will increase their inventory due to "winter storage" and increase sales pressure after the holiday, which will curb the rising price of building materials market.
Liang Taigeng said, from the change of the regional building materials market supply, supply decline in North China this year will be higher than other regions, "North wood down" stronger, faster progress, large scale, this is because the price of building materials in south area is higher than that in other regions of the country, is higher than the northern region. For example, in February 9th, the market price of 20mm three class rebar in Guangzhou was 4330 yuan / ton, while the price of 20mm three grade rebar in Shenyang and Changchun was 3920-3930 yuan / ton, and the difference between the two places reached 400-410 yuan / ton. As a result, the resources of "North material south" have entered the Southern China area. Especially in Guangzhou area, the resources of "North timber" are more, and the inventory of building materials market is increasing. The growth of Hangzhou building steel market stock in East China is not small, and the growth rate is very fast. Judging from the trend of building steel inventory in the country, the inventory growth and growth in Southern China and East China are faster and larger than that in North China and Northeast China. The regional changes in the supply of building materials will directly affect the trend of building materials market in March.
From the demand level of construction steel market, Liang Taigeng said that during the Spring Festival, the construction stopped, some engineering because of rain and snow weather in advance before the Spring Festival holiday day and today later than usual, as soon as possible after the requirements of the project started as soon as possible, according to the traditional custom, after the restoration project overall construction in migrant workers back to the city after the Lantern Festival. May this year, the Lantern Festival in early March, therefore, in late February and early March, demand for construction steel market is still difficult to significantly release, construction of stagnant demand for steel will take about 1 months to 1 months. Therefore, in the late 3 month, the building materials market demand will gradually release.
Liang Taigeng then said, this year the demand for construction steel market impact and a difference with previous years, in the early spring festival today, most parts of the country, heavy snow blizzard, the open-air construction projects to stop construction earlier; there are also some areas due to haze weather, the construction is limited to slow. Besides, in Beijing Tianjin Hebei area, due to environmental remediation, the construction of local construction stopped for a long time. Some projects were stopped construction in November October last year, which restricted the release of demand. After the Spring Festival, the construction project is expected to be a rush strikes, to speed up the construction progress of the project, especially in North China Construction Project will quickly enter the construction climax. Therefore, the demand intensity and demand of building steel in North China will be stronger than that in other regions, and the demand will be greater or greater, or there will be an explosive demand.
