External macro markets
The Fed sent a signal to cut interest rates, and Trump delivered a State of the Union address. The Fed's Kaplan said the economy is expected to grow by close to 2 % in 2019. Fiscal stimulus helped to peak growth in 2018, and its impact is expected to subside in 2019. Six days ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Yellen said if the global economic slowdown affected the United States, the Federal Reserve may be the next step to end interest rate increases, to reduce interest rates. On the evening of May 5, US President Donald Trump delivered his second State of the Union address since he took office. Trump expressed his eagerness to work with Congress to pass an infrastructure investment bill to invest in new and important infrastructure projects. It is hoped that Congress will approve the new "US-Mexican-Canada Agreement" to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement; Protect intellectual property rights and ensure that more cars are made in the United States.
The euro zone's economic data are weak and the EU's internal conflicts continue. In December, the euro zone PPI ratio was -0.8 %, the previous value was -0.3 %, and the expected -0.6 %. The euro zone's February Sentix investor confidence index was -3.7, a new low for more than four years. In addition to the uncertain outlook for Brexit, investors are sensing uncertainty among central banks, particularly as the Fed is likely to turn loose. France recalled its ambassador to Italy on the 7th to protest against the meeting between Italian Deputy Prime Minister Dimayue and representatives of the French "Huangmajia" movement and Italy's recent criticism of the French government and president. On the 7th, the European Union rejected the request of the United Kingdom to restart the "Brexit" negotiations. After the European Council President Tusk ended his talks with Teresa May, he immediately said on social media: "There is still no progress and the negotiations will continue. "
Japan's 2018 current account surplus fell for the first time in four years, and the return on foreign investment increased. Japan's balance of payments current account surplus in 2018 reached Y19 .09 TN(Y110), a 13 per cent drop from the previous year and the first decline in four years, according to data released on the 8th by the Ministry of Finance. According to data, Japan's trade surplus remained positive in 2018, but its surplus of Y1 .19 BN was sharply reduced by 76 per cent from the previous year. Among them, the total export volume was 81.21 trillion yen, an increase of 5.1 % over the previous year; The total amount of imports was 80.2 trillion yen, an increase of 10.6 % over the previous year. The data also show a second consecutive year of growth in Japanese overseas investment earnings. In 2018, overseas investment income, including interest and dividends, reached 2.081 trillion yen, an increase of 4.9 % over the previous year, the second highest level ever.

The dollar index rose 1.08 per cent during the Spring Festival, the biggest weekly gain in six months. The dollar index rose 0.06 per cent on February 8 to 96.6405, a seven-day high for more than a month, as traders rushed to buy the dollar to avoid danger, fearing the global economy would weaken. The euro still recorded its biggest Zhoudu drop against the dollar for more than four months, a factor that suggests the European slowdown is spreading. Global stock markets were mixed, with the euro zone performing worst. From February 1st to February 8th, the global stock index performed better than the US stocks in Japan and the euro zone, and the European market in the UK was stronger than the euro zone. The main reason was the continuous contradictions in the European market last week, the United Kingdom's Brexit, France's desire to fight evil, and Italy's lower growth expectations. The market has become more risk-averse.

 

Comparison of Changes in Global Major Stock Indices during the Spring Festival

During the Spring Festival of 2019, commodity prices were largely dominated by small declines, particularly in crude oil, amid concerns about a slowdown in world economic growth.
While there have been positive factors such as a recent OPEC cut and US sanctions on Venezuela, concerns about slowing global demand for crude oil in 2019 and the rapid expansion of US crude oil production capacity have continued to dominate, with WTI crude oil prices falling nearly 5 per cent during the Spring Festival.
Iron ore rose by 6.74 per cent during the Spring Festival, the highest among major commodities, as a result of the previous Vale accident, the cancellation of the Vale dam operating licence during the Spring Festival and the announcement of force majeure of some contracts.
Gold prices have begun to strengthen amid expectations that the Fed will stop raising interest rates and a growing number of countries are moving toward dollarization, with prices of precious metals such as Huangjinbaiyin, although slightly lower during the Spring Festival this year, having rebounded more sharply from the roughly 2 per cent drop recorded during the 2018 holiday.

III. Domestic Black Commodities
Stock is lower than the same period last year, the market is expected to have a good start. According to Mysteel inventory statistics, although the inventory of the five major varieties in the last week before the Spring Festival in 2019 was higher than in 2016, it was lower than in 2017 and 2018, especially spiral steel, and the total inventory was less than 1.22 million tons in the same period in 2018. Demand is better than it was in the same period last year, when output was higher than in the same period last year. The market still has great expectations for post-market demand.

In terms of specific prices, from the comparison of Myspicpugang's price index before and after the Spring Festival in previous years, there are 70 % of the probability that prices will rise and fall on the 15th before and after the last decade. Before the Spring Festival of 2019, the steel price index accumulated a slight increase of 0.4 %, and it is expected that there will be a large probability of a good start.

Note: Myspic Steel Relative Price Index July 31, 2000 = 100